Middle-market companies generate about one-third of US private-sector GDP, employ more than 48m people and have consistently outpaced the S&P 500 in revenue growth1. Yet their economic importance is often overlooked.
“These companies are right here in plain sight, but for many years they've been underappreciated,” says Doug Farren, executive director, National Center for the Middle Market (NCMM). “They tend to be pillars of the community and strong employers, and they have resilient, stable and growing businesses.”
As these companies expand, their risk profiles can change. Ben Rockwell, senior vice president, Chubb Group, division president of North America Commercial Insurance, explains that Chubb is spending more time helping middle-market clients understand how their exposures shift as they pursue new avenues for growth.
How these companies prepare for disruption matters, and the strongest performers appear to take a more intentional approach to managing risk.
Defining the middle market
The “middle market” typically refers to companies with annual revenues between US$10m-1bn:
Lower middle market: $10m-$50m annual revenue
Core middle market: $50m-$100m annual revenue
Upper middle market: $100m-$1bn annual revenue
Growing on several fronts
For 15 years, the Middle Market Indicator (MMI) has tracked business performance and the economic outlook through a survey of 1,000 C-suite executives. Since 2019, Chubb has partnered with NCMM to explore leaders’ perceptions of risk and risk management practices.
That long-term view shows middle-market companies growing on several fronts, through new technologies, products, services and markets.
How middle-market companies plan to grow, according to MMI surveys, 2021–26
“These companies operate at the intersection of scale and runway,” says Mr Farren. “They're big enough to overcome the threats facing a small business or startup, but they also have enough fuel and innovation to drive consistent growth.”
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Outpacing the S&P 500 on revenue growth
*AS OF JULY 29, 2026, WHEN THE MMI WAS PUBLISHED, S&P HAD NOT RELEASED ITS Q2 INDICES.
Source: National Center for the Middle Market2
Outpacing small and large businesses on employment growth
Source: National Center for the Middle Market3
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Although they may be eyeing overseas expansion, Mr Farren points out that many middle-market companies are continuing to pursue opportunities within the US, including building new warehouses and manufacturing facilities and taking on debt financing.
Growth can bring new risks
While growth is often the goal of a middle-market company, every new market, facility, hire or technology can add another layer of exposure. Chubb points to a private-equity-owned security technology contractor that grew rapidly across the US, Canada and international markets. As its operations expanded, so did the mix of risks it needed to manage, from the technology it installed to its commercial fleet and cross-border operations.
New physical locations bring their own risk exposures. “If you're signing a 30-year lease, you need to understand, for example, what your exposure to flood is and what it could be five, ten years from now,” says Mr Rockwell.
What the best performers do
High-growth companies tend to approach risk differently.
NCMM describes the roughly 20% that achieve revenue growth of 20% or more in a given year as “Growth Champions”.6 These companies consistently rate cyber, supply-chain and talent risks higher than their peers, have greater visibility into those risks and place greater emphasis on managing them.
“The best performing middle market companies are constantly balancing growth,” Mr Rockwell says. “They know when their approach is thoughtful and proactive, risk management can align with—and fuel—growth strategies.”
The difference lies in treating risk management not as a defensive capability—but something that is integrated into how they manage and grow the business, he explains.
At the top
Across recent semi-annual MMI surveys, three risks have appeared most consistently as the top concerns of middle-market leaders.
Top risks across six MMI surveys
When executives were asked specifically about physical risk, it was clear from their answers that the boundaries between physical and digital risks have blurred.
Top concerns around physical risks4
Infrastructure / business disruption
Cyber-attacks/breaches
Extreme weather disruptions
“The proliferation of technology and automation is reframing what would traditionally be a fairly physical world,” says Mr Rockwell. In increasingly automated manufacturing environments, for example, there is the risk of a cyber-attack causing physical damage.
Top risks vary by industry5
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Manufacturing
Supply chain
Financial Institutions
Regulatory and compliance
Life Sciences
Cybersecurity
Technology
Digitisation and advancing technology
Business & Professional Services
Digitisation and advancing technology
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The shift toward proactive risk management is visible over time. In the mid-2010s, only a minority of middle-market firms had enterprise risk management frameworks. A decade later, the majority do. Still, for the majority of companies, more progress is needed. Two-thirds are only somewhat or even not at all aware of or prepared for emerging risks.7
Preparing for emerging risks begins with understanding how changes to the business alter exposure and requires a coordinated approach spanning business continuity planning, risk controls and insurance needs.
“We have a lot of discussions with risk managers who may be developing a new product or building in a new location about anticipating their exposures,” says Mr Rockwell. “They need to be able to conceptualise the risk and stay ahead of emerging exposures.”
Top performers also incorporate risk management into investment and expansion decisions. Looking across 15 years of NCMM data, Mr Farren says companies that invest consistently through upswings and downturns appear better placed for their next phase of growth. That includes investment in risk management and resilience.
“You can't overestimate the importance of a proactive approach to risk management,” says Mr Rockwell. “Risks are constantly growing, so investments in risk management programmes and engaging with distribution partners are critical. That’s what we see in the best performers.”
Legal disclaimer:
Chubb is the marketing name used to refer to subsidiaries of Chubb Limited providing insurance and related services. For a list of these subsidiaries, please visit our website at www.chubb.com. Insurance provided by ACE American Insurance Company and its U.S. based Chubb underwriting company affiliates. All products may not be available in all states. This communication contains product summaries only. Coverage is subject to the language of the policies as actually issued. Surplus lines insurance sold only through licensed surplus lines producers. The material presented herein is advisory in nature and is offered as a resource to be used together with your professional insurance advisors in maintaining a loss prevention program. It is not intended as a substitute for legal, insurance, or other professional advice, but rather is presented for general information only. You should consult knowledgeable legal counsel or other knowledgeable experts as to any legal or technical questions you may have. Chubb, 202 Hall's Mill Road, Whitehouse Station, NJ 08889-1600.
References
- National Center for the Middle Market, “Mid-Year 2026 Middle Market Indicator,” 2026.
- National Center for the Middle Market, “Mid-Year 2026 Middle Market Indicator,” 2026.
- National Center for the Middle Market, “Mid-Year 2026 Middle Market Indicator,” 2026.
- Chubb Middle Market Indicator, “Growing Strong: Ready to Get Stronger on Risk,” Fall 2026.
- Chubb Middle Market Indicator, “Risk & Resilience Across Key Sectors,” Fall 2026 (coming soon).
- National Center for the Middle Market, “Middle Market Indicator Trend Data,” 2011–2026.
- Chubb Middle Market Indicator, “Growing Strong: Ready to Get Stronger on Risk,” Fall 2026.