About this research
A robust approach to research, combining a global survey, discussions with trade experts and natural language processing
Now in its fifth edition, Trade in Transition, a research programme led by Economist Impact and supported by DP World, continues to explore the forces shaping global trade and supply chains. It seeks to unravel the complexities of global trade and equip businesses with practical insights to adapt to a fragmented world. By linking these findings to major global events, the programme brings meaning to the priorities and strategies that are likely to define the future of trade and supply chains. A separate article is devoted to a longer-term challenge facing businesses: to advance sustainability in their trade practices as demanded by climate change.*
Our research draws on a global survey of 3,500 senior executives across six industries and all major regions (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Africa and South America). It asks about their sentiments towards global trade for the year ahead and queries the supply-chain strategies their firms are adopting.
To complement the survey, the research programme uses natural language processing (NLP) to analyse shifts in global narratives on trade and supply chains. By breaking everyday language into quantifiable data, NLP enables a measurement of the frequency of key terms across a vast body of text. When these results are mapped against major global events, they reveal changing trade priorities over time. The analysis draws on reports from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) spanning 1996 to 2024, distinguishing two pivotal eras: the Washington Consensus and New Globalisation. Each era is associated with specific trade-related terms. Words linked to New Globalisation include geopolitics, climate change and artificial intelligence, reflecting the core factors driving this chapter of global trade. By contrast, words associated with the Washington Consensus include multilateralism, deregulation and open markets.
The findings from both our survey and NLP analysis were supplemented by an interview programme with trade experts and senior executives from various regions and industries. We would like to thank the following experts for their time and insights:
- Leila Afas, director of global public policy, Toyota
- Sreejith Balasubramanian, head of the centre for supply-chain excellence, Middlesex University
- Nadia Boumeziout, head of sustainability, Zurich Insurance
- Ed Brzytwa, vice president of international trade, Consumer Technology Association
- Daniel Enache, director for parts & accessories logistics, Dacia
- Jan Havenga, professor of logistics, Stellenbosch University
- Sneha Susan Jacob, head of supply-chain development and CapEx for eastern emerging markets (Russia, Middle East, Africa, Turkey and Eastern Europe), KraftHeinz
- Anderson Martins, head of supply chain, Nestle Philippines
- Juerg R. Meier, managing director, Kuehne+Nagel
- Marko Kovacevic, managing director, Digital Supply Chain Institute
- Simon Lacey, head of digital trade and geopolitics, World Economic Forum
- Sulaiman Pallak, general manager of sales operations, General Motors
- Asif Salam, professor of marketing & supply-chain management, King Abdulaziz University
- Sandeep Sharma, director of group procurement & international markets supply chain, Alamar Foods
- Sabine Weyand, director general for trade, European Commission
The report was produced by a team of researchers at Economist Impact, including:
About DP World
A leading provider of smart logistics solutions
We help trade flow across the globe. Our global network spans across 295 business units in 78 countries, made up of logistics terminals, marine services, ports and economic zones – covering every link of the integrated supply chain.
We think ahead, anticipate change and deploy industry-leading technology to create innovative trade solutions while ensuring a positive impact on economies, societies and our planet.
