Where investment goes today will shape who produces, supplies, innovates and trades tomorrow. Across the world, companies are directing growing shares of capital towards AI infrastructure, semiconductors, critical minerals and clean technologies. These are not only attracting investment—they are shaping the productive capacity, supplier networks and digital infrastructure behind future trade, while also influencing the comparative advantages that will determine future export resilience, competitiveness and, ultimately, trade flows.
The World Investment Report 2026 by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) shows that international investment is becoming more strategic, more selective and more concentrated. Companies are reassessing where they invest. Governments are competing for industries linked to future growth. For trade, the implication is clear: investment patterns today are shaping tomorrow’s production networks and the geography of global supply chains and trade.
Recent UNCTAD trade analysis points in the same direction: much of today's trade growth is concentrated in AI-related products. The World Investment Report shows investment moving into many of the same strategic industries. Trade and investment are therefore reinforcing the same pattern: economic activity is concentrating around a relatively small group of sectors that will shape future production and competition. At the same time, these same sectors also account for an increasing share of future merchandise and digitally enabled trade.
Investment in strategic sectors is booming
The shift is visible in the investment data.
Between 2020 and 2025, strategic sectors rose from 16% to 44% of global greenfield investment project values. AI infrastructure became the largest investment segment, while semiconductor investment expanded by an average of 54% a year. Critical minerals and energy-transition technologies also recorded strong growth—sectors that are increasingly central to international trade, both as traded products and as inputs into globally traded goods.
Cost, efficiency and market access still matter. But they no longer explain investment decisions on their own. Industrial policy, technological capabilities, secure access to critical inputs and economic-security and geopolitical concerns now play a larger role.
Different strategic sectors respond to different combinations of these factors. AI infrastructure follows digital ecosystems and large markets. Semiconductor investment responds to technology capabilities, industrial incentives and trusted partners. Critical minerals depend on resource endowments, but increasingly also on mid- and downstream processing capacity and supply-chain integration.
In trade terms, this means future export opportunities will depend increasingly on whether countries can connect to the production systems forming around these sectors, where investment is booming.
There is no single new investment geography. AI infrastructure, semiconductors, critical minerals and energy-transition technologies each follow a different investment logic. Together, they are reshaping where future production and trade capacity will be located, and where future trade corridors are likely to emerge.
The boom is concentrating, not spreading
Rapid growth has not made strategic investment more geographically diverse. Much of it remains highly concentrated.
The geography differs from one sector to another, but leadership remains concentrated among a relatively small group of economies. The United States dominates outward investment in AI and advanced technologies, while Europe has emerged as a main recipient location. In critical minerals, China plays a leading role both as an investor and across mid- and downstream supply chains. Semiconductor investment is shaped by a limited number of firms, capabilities and production hubs.
These patterns differ across sectors; their common feature is concentration.
Across the strategic sectors analysed in the World Investment Report 2026, the top three investor economies accounted, on average, for 72% of global greenfield project values in 2025. The top three recipient economies captured 56%. Concentration was much lower in other sectors.
This matters because investment does more than finance individual projects. It helps create jobs, suppliers, specialised skills, infrastructure and innovation ecosystems. Countries that attract these projects are also better placed to capture future export opportunities and supplier relationships.
As strategic sectors surge, traditional manufacturing is losing momentum
For decades, manufacturing investment provided many developing economies with a practical route into global production and a pathway to economic development. Investment in textiles, consumer goods, agri-business and transport equipment created jobs, transferred technology and gradually built industrial capabilities.
That pathway remains important. But it is no longer where the strongest investment momentum lies. For trade, this matters because manufacturing has been one of the most accessible routes into value addition and economic diversification through global value chains for many developing economies and a key stepping stone towards export-led industrialisation.
While the share of global greenfield investment going to strategic sectors almost tripled between 2020 and 2025, the value of announced greenfield investment in manufacturing outside strategic sectors was 17% lower in 2021-25 than in 2015-19. The decline has been particularly pronounced in developing economies and the least developed countries.
The contrast matters. Strategic sectors increasingly demand advanced infrastructure, specialised skills, strong innovation systems and sophisticated regulatory environments. Traditional manufacturing, by contrast, has historically offered more accessible entry points into international production networks.
The development challenge is changing. The fastest-growing investment is flowing into industries that require more advanced capabilities, while the manufacturing sectors that have historically helped countries industrialise are losing momentum. The risk is that fewer countries will find accessible routes into the value chains that shape future trade and opportunities to expand and diversify their exports.
Global production is being reorganised
The shift is not only about which sectors are growing. Geopolitical tensions, supply-chain disruptions, trade-policy uncertainty and economic-security concerns are influencing where companies invest and how they design supply chains. The report does not point to a simple, across-the-board move towards nearshoring. The picture is more complex: firms are reassessing locations, suppliers and risks in different ways across sectors.
At the same time, evolving tariff regimes, industrial policies, export controls and other trade-related measures are increasingly influencing investment decisions. Trade policy is no longer only shaping market access; it is also being used to advance industrial-policy objectives, direct investment towards strategic industries and influence the geography of future production and trade.
This reorganisation is far from over. As governments continue to adjust policy frameworks and firms respond to shifting commercial and geopolitical risks, companies are likely to continue reassessing where they invest, produce and source.
For developing economies, the challenge is to remain connected to production networks as they evolve, while preserving effective market access in an increasingly fragmented trading environment.
Staying connected is the challenge
The answer is not for every country to build a semiconductor industry or replicate the subsidies of the world's largest economies. For most developing economies that would be unrealistic and fiscally risky.
Success will depend on identifying realistic entry points into the industries shaping future production and trade. Some countries can build on natural-resource endowments. Others may find opportunities in critical-minerals processing and refining, supplier industries, specialised manufacturing, logistics, digital infrastructure, energy services or business services linked to strategic sectors. Regional integration can help create larger markets and stronger industrial ecosystems. International partnerships remain essential to mobilise investment, technology and know-how.
For trade, the stakes are clear. Today's investment patterns are shaping tomorrow's production networks, supplier relationships and export opportunities. Broadening participation in strategic sectors is therefore not only an investment priority. It is also essential for a more diversified and resilient global trading system that enables a wider range of economies to participate in and benefit from future trade growth.
Views or opinions expressed are those of the author and any individuals cited, and do not necessarily reflect those of Economist Enterprise or any other member of The Economist Group.