Artificial intelligence is beginning to reshape global trade. WTO simulations suggest that AI could increase global trade by 34–37% by 2040, with trade in digitally deliverable services rising by around 42%. But those gains will not be automatic. They will depend on who can participate in the markets, services and value chains AI is creating.
For the world’s least-developed countries (LDCs), access is only the starting point. The World Bank’s World Development Report 2026 frames the challenge as adopt, adapt and advance. For most LDCs, building frontier models will not be the immediate priority. A more practical route is to adapt existing technologies to local sectors, languages and institutions, and turn them into higher productivity, new exports, investment and jobs.
That opportunity is expanding as the AI ecosystem becomes more diverse. GPT, Gemini and Claude in the United States continue to push frontier capabilities; DeepSeek and Qwen in China are widening competition on cost and open-weight access; and India is investing in multilingual systems through initiatives such as BharatGen and Sarvam AI. For LDCs this matters because it expands the range of models, price points and deployment options available for adaptation.
Trade and investment determine whether that access becomes economic participation.
Access is only the starting point
AI can first strengthen what LDCs already sell to the world. Smaller exporters often face high costs in finding customers, understanding regulations, translating information, meeting standards and navigating customs procedures. AI can lower some of these frictions through better market intelligence, language processing, logistics, forecasting and compliance support.
The opportunity is not simply to export the same goods more efficiently. AI can also help firms improve quality, customise products, add services and move towards higher-value activities. A joint WTO–International Chamber of Commerce survey found that close to 90% of businesses already using AI reported benefits to trade-related activities, with smaller firms using it for market intelligence and communications
The opportunity lies beyond frontier AI
Participation in the AI economy need not mean competing at the technological frontier. Semiconductors, hyperscale computing and foundation models are capital- and infrastructure-intensive. Few LDCs will compete directly in these areas soon, nor should that be the benchmark.
The wider AI value chain offers other entry points. Models must be adapted to industries and languages, tested in local settings and integrated into business processes. This creates opportunities in localisation, implementation, AI-enabled services and sector-specific applications. Digitally delivered services are especially important because they can allow firms to reach foreign customers without the physical infrastructure required for goods exports.
Competitive advantage may come not from owning the largest model, but from understanding a particular market, language, production system or customer problem.
What countries import will shape what they can export
AI strategies cannot focus only on exports. Cloud computing, software, telecommunications equipment, specialised expertise and other digital services are inputs into AI adoption. Global trade in AI-enabling goods, including semiconductors and computing equipment, reached $2.3trn in 2023, according to the WTO.
If these technologies are expensive or difficult to deploy, firms in vulnerable or fragile economies begin at a structural disadvantage. Predictable access to digital and technology inputs will increasingly shape what firms are able to produce and export.
Small markets also need scale. Regional integration can widen customer bases, support cross-border digital services and make specialised products commercially viable beyond one national market.
Investment turns capability into commerce
Technology alone will not be enough. Firms need finance, workers need relevant skills, and economies need reliable electricity, digital infrastructure, effective institutions and trusted data systems. These complements determine whether adoption becomes productive capacity.
Trade and investment therefore need to be considered together. Foreign investment can bring capital, technology and access to customers; development finance can supply complements that markets underprovide. This is also the logic of EIF Phase Three, backed by recent funding from the European Union, Germany, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, building on earlier commitments from Denmark, Finland, France and Sweden.
The objective is not to finance isolated AI pilots, but to strengthen the infrastructure, skills and institutions that crowd in private investment and allow local firms to scale.
Participation is essential for development
For the Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF), this means shifting the emphasis from technology access towards country-specific economic participation. EIF Phase Three connects trade and investment priorities to country-led programmes through Country Programme Documents, identifying commercially credible opportunities and linking them with the institutions, enterprises, investment and partnerships required for delivery.
The forthcoming EIF work on AI, trade and investment in LDCs will examine where these opportunities are most credible and what prevents firms from capturing them. EIF is also launching AURA, a digital gateway intended to improve access to country-level evidence, strengthen partnerships and support more informed investment decisions. These initiatives also feed into the wider Aid for Trade debate, including through the Aid for Trade Global Review, on how LDCs can turn technological change into productive capacity, trade and investment.
There will be no single pathway. Countries with stronger services capabilities will face different opportunities from those centred on agriculture, tourism, manufacturing or commodities. The starting point must, therefore, be each economy’s existing productive base and a practical assessment of where AI can make firms more productive, tradable and investable.
Access matters. Adoption matters. But lasting development gains will depend on participation.
Views or opinions expressed are those of the author and any individuals cited, and do not necessarily reflect those of Economist Enterprise or any other member of The Economist Group.