The Future of Trade
Realising the shared benefits of an open and interconnected world
The Future of Trade is a multi-year initiative from Economist Enterprise that seeks to map a path through an era of fragmentation, fast technological change and shifting geopolitics. With the support of UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) as its knowledge partner, it will produce independent, evidence-based analysis to build consensus and set out practical steps towards a more resilient, inclusive and sustainable global trading system.
The research programme will examine the flows that shape global commerce in a period of persistent uncertainty, focusing on three linked priorities:
Global trade, local choices
Strengthening trade rules and international cooperation so local, national and global policies work together
Next-generation trade
Meeting climate policy with AI-driven digital trade to create fairer and greener commerce
Resilient supply chains
Exploring the latest in logistics, infrastructure and technology to help build stronger supply chains
Latest insights
Insights | Goods, services and digital trade
Realising the potential of services trade
The future of trade is services. The future of trade policy is plurilateral. The WTO needs to get both right—and soon, writes John Ferguson, initiative lead of The Future of Trade.
The rise of geoeconomics: a more challenging path to development
As the rules of globalisation are being rewritten, can poorer countries still progress? UNCTAD's annual Trade and Development Report, published last week on 9 October, addresses this question in the context of an emergent global geoeconomy.
Britain can make more of its existing capability and closest connections
A lot of debate about strengthening Britain's national resilience, supply chains and economic security focuses on building new capability. We must not, however, overlook or undervalue what we already have.
The rise of plurilateral trade deals
Plurilateral agreements are playing a bigger role in global trade. How do they work, and why do they matter?
The water impacts of global trade: hidden risk or competitive opportunity?
Water scarcity was once treated mainly as a local environmental problem. Global trade now transmits its consequences far beyond the rivers, aquifers and watersheds where it originates.
Moving what’s next: The new map of global trade
How ports, warehouses and logistics networks are adapting to shifting trade patterns
Key research
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Global Illicit Trade Environment Index
Illicit trade corrodes economies and institutions. It undercuts legitimate businesses, drains public revenue and fuels corruption and organised crime. The Illicit Trade Environment Index (ITEI) measures how effectively countries are equipped to combat such activity across governance, enforcement, border management and regulatory oversight.
The findings are sobering. Strong laws and advanced border systems mean little when corruption is rife or enforcement weak. Bribery can hollow out even the best-designed frameworks, while free-trade zones—often exempt from normal rules—remain magnets for smugglers and counterfeiters. Illicit trade flourishes in opaque environments. The ITEI highlights both what works and where vulnerabilities persist, guiding policymakers, firms and civil society to focus their efforts where they can make the greatest difference.
Trade in Transition
Disruptions to global trade and supply chains are reshaping how businesses operate. Wars, political tensions and climate shocks have exposed the fragility of the global trading system, making efficiency, resilience and adaptability central to long-term growth. Trade in Transition examines these forces and offers businesses practical insights to navigate an increasingly fragmented world.
The research shows that despite geopolitical and economic headwinds, companies are not retreating from international markets; they are adapting. Many are reconfiguring supply chains, investing in digital tools and adopting technologies such as artificial intelligence to improve efficiency and uncover new opportunities. Trade in Transition reveals how businesses are adjusting to this new era of globalisation and helps policymakers and corporate leaders understand what strategies will set the most agile firms apart.
Supported by SAP Ariba
The resilient edge: procurement in an era of polycrisis
Procurement is entering a new strategic era. Global disruption and rising stakeholder expectations are pushing the function beyond its traditional focus on cost to one centred on resilience, collaboration and growth. The Procurement Imperative explores how the function is evolving to identify the challenges, priorities and opportunities shaping its future.
The research findings reveal that procurement teams are forging closer ties with other business areas and external partners. They are also improving their ability to manage risk and utilise technology. Yet persistent challenges remain, from geopolitical volatility and digital readiness to skills gaps. The Procurement Imperative highlights how leading organisations are redefining procurement to build resilience and deliver competitive advantage in an era of “polycrisis.”
Supported by Swift
Growth at a crossroads: measuring the cost of financial fragmentation
For decades globalisation linked markets and spread capital, trade and knowledge across borders. The global financial system made it possible, fuelling everything from manufacturing to real estate to the trade of complex derivatives. Now, financial fragmentation threatens to slow growth and erode stability. Growth at a Crossroads measures the cost of this shift.
Financial fragmentation deprives economies of the foreign capital, knowledge and technology that drive productivity and strengthen financial sectors. It also raises borrowing costs and increases the risk of instability while threatening financial inclusion. With investment flows slowing, the gains of globalisation are at risk. Growth at a Crossroads examines the scale and cost of this shift and asks what governments, investors and institutions can do to preserve the openness that has long underpinned global prosperity.
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Steering committee
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John Ferguson
Global head, Trade and Geopolitics, Future of Trade Initiative
Abe Eshkenazi
Chief Executive Officer
Dmitry Grozoubinski
Executive Director
Emily Lydgate
Professor of law, Co-director
Marc Melitz
Professor of Political Economy
Stephen Olson
Visiting Senior Fellow
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The Future of Trade is supported by
Knowledge partner
Contact Us
We welcome ideas to inform our strategic roadmap. Send any thoughts or questions to John Ferguson, Lead, Future of Trade, Economist Enterprise: [email protected]
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