Lifelong resilience: understanding climate risks for renewable energy
From solar farms to wind turbines, the unique vulnerabilities of renewable energy assets demand proactive planning against evolving climate hazards.
Global renewable energy generation is projected to grow by 2.7 times by 2030,¹ making up nearly half of the world’s electricity supply, as countries and companies strive to achieve net-zero emissions targets set for 2050. But how exposed is renewable energy infrastructure itself to the vagaries of climate change?
In a recent survey on companies’ readiness for the future, FM found that nearly 60% of renewable energy providers felt very or extremely confident in their infrastructure resilience. “This made sense, but as we dug deeper, we realised that the risks they were most focused on were short-term,” says Doug Patterson, senior vice president, forest products and FM Renewable Energy at FM.
Although survey respondents were confident in their ability to address immediate concerns, they were inclined to underestimate longer-term risks that impact a project’s operational lifespan. From wind turbine blades to solar farms, assets can be damaged by floods, hail and storms, all of which are becoming more frequent and unpredictable as the climate changes.
Renewable risks
Renewable energy projects face different risks to traditional energy infrastructure; the vulnerabilities of fields of glass solar panels differ from those of concrete power plants. Many of these technologies are relatively new, and so the industry’s understanding of risk is still catching up to reality. “Developers may have made the best possible choices at the time, but as technology and design approaches rapidly evolve, we now recognise that some earlier installations are more vulnerable,” says Cassian Walker, renewables engineering manager at FM.
Adapting requires careful planning at the construction and operation phases. “We've seen projects that are supposed to last 30 years that already need to be rebuilt before they get started,” says Michael Perron, renewable energy market lead at FM. To safeguard assets, projects must be resilient to current conditions, multiple cycles of severe weather during a 12- to 18-month construction period, and the long-term impacts of a shifting climate throughout the asset’s life cycle of 30 to 40 years.
Anticipating and planning for these evolving risks is central to FM’s strategy. Sustainability and the energy transition are not just about cleaner energy, but also about designing infrastructure to withstand the test of time. “We're not just evaluating risks as they are today, or as they were in the past, but also looking ahead,” says Mr Patterson.
Natural hazards
Weather events have been a leading cause of high-frequency, high-severity losses in renewables. “We've seen hailstorms, hurricanes and flooding cause significant damage to solar farms, wind farms and battery storage installations,” says Mr Perron. “Often, these projects were either not designed to handle such storms, or they didn't take the appropriate protections prior to the event.”
Scientists agree that climate change is driving an increase in extreme weather.² Hail is one example; Mr Perron warns that the threat of hailstorms is underestimated. “We’re seeing significant hail events well outside of the areas more commonly known to be subject to severe hail,” he observes.
Because hailstorms have caused serious damage to solar farms, industries’ understanding of hail risk needs to evolve as these storms become more common.³ “FM has focused a lot of research on understanding how technology reacts to an increase in hail frequency and severity over its life, and how we can manage that through hail-optimised mitigation options,” explains Mr Walker. This research has enabled site-specific hail risk assessments, predicting hailstone size and panel resilience to manage exposure.
Mr Patterson cites lightning as another threat: more frequent and severe storms will increase the number of strikes on wind turbines. A proactive approach, involving enhanced inspection and testing, is key to ensuring that renewable infrastructure can adapt to weather risk.
Storing energy for the future
Battery energy storage systems are essential for the management of a renewable power grid, allowing energy to be stored during a surplus and supplied back to the grid when needed. But batteries raise the risk of “thermal runaway”, when a battery cell overheats uncontrollably, which can lead to a fire within its storage container.
FM’s engineering and research teams offer early detection systems and guide clients in optimising the use of space, while keeping units far enough apart to prevent fires from spreading. “You can't always reliably prevent a thermal runaway event from occurring,” Mr Walker points out. “But in helping our clients design and configure battery energy storage systems, we’re supporting them in building and operating resilient facilities.”
Future data centres will rely more heavily on batteries; the energy demands of AI make it increasingly economical for data centres to have power generation or storage close by. “This brings us back to the importance of space separation, so that these solutions don't inadvertently create risks for the data centres they support,” says Mr Walker. “The challenge here is ensuring that we don't unintentionally introduce vulnerabilities into the design.”
It’s not only batteries that are moving closer to data centres. “We’re seeing a move toward developing generation sources closer to the point of use,” says Mr Perron. “That shift helps reduce the reliance on traditional grid infrastructure and can help manage intermittency – provided the right measures are in place.”
Proactive power
With guidance from partners such as FM, renewable energy developers can take essential steps to forge long-term resilience, combining design strategies, thoughtful material selection and active risk mitigation. “Companies are now proactively ordering supplies for future projects well in advance,” says Mr Perron. “Others are also taking steps like standardising the equipment they use with key partner vendors to reduce supply-chain risks. More collaboration between the parties is sorely needed throughout the industry.”
In a world of escalating risks – from extreme weather to supply-chain disruptions – insurance must be deeply integrated into project design and construction. All stakeholders need a seat at the table. “Developers, operators and insurers all have a shared objective: to build, develop, and operate these projects as resiliently as possible, and most resilient installations will naturally lead to better terms and conditions from an insurance standpoint,” says Mr Walker.
Ultimately, understanding risk demands insight, data, and expertise. “We’re trying to provide a partnership that helps project owners, developers and builders better understand the gap between perceived and actual risk, which includes considering how risks might change over time, especially as climate patterns evolve,” explains Mr Patterson. “If you can truly understand those risks and account for them in your planning today – through smarter design and more strategic decisions – you set yourself up for a more productive and resilient project throughout its life cycle.”